URGENT POLICY BRIEF | FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION
31,400 Lives at Risk? Nigeria’s Race Against Super El Niño
Heat-health preparedness for September 2026 to February 2027
To
Federal Government of Nigeria: Secretary to the Government of the Federation; Ministers of Health and Social Welfare, Environment, Agriculture and Food Security, Humanitarian Affairs; DGs of NiMet, NEMA and NCDC; Nigeria Governors’ Forum
From
[Author / organisation: insert]
Date
24 October 2026
Decision needed
Activate a national heat-health response within 7 days
1. Bottom line
Nigeria has the highest projected heat mortality of any country in the 2026–27 super El Niño: about 31,400 additional deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. (Climate Impact Lab) This is a modelled projection above a normal year, not a recorded toll. Roughly half of it, 15,400 deaths, is projected for December to February, so protective action can still change the outcome. (Climate Impact Lab)
We recommend that the Federal Government, within seven days, convene a National Heat-Health Emergency Taskforce with one accountable chair. Within 30 days it should issue a national heat early-warning protocol tied to health surveillance, and pre-position water, cooling and hospital surge capacity in the highest-exposure northern states.
2. What the evidence shows
Three independent lines of evidence point the same way.
The El Niño is intensifying beyond precedent. On 23 October the WMO said Pacific sea-surface temperatures may reach 3.8°C above average in November 2026 to January 2027, calling the event “off the monitoring charts” of the past four decades. (UN News) In September it had already reported a near-100% likelihood that El Niño persists to February 2027. (WMO)
The mortality projection is specific. The Climate Impact Lab (University of Chicago) applies temperature–mortality relationships from 24,378 regions to ECMWF seasonal forecasts, against a 1996–2025 baseline. It projects 451,000 excess heat deaths worldwide from June 2026 to February 2027 and 44% more extremely hot days. (Climate Impact Lab) The Sahel is projected to lose 66,800 people, with Nigeria accounting for 31,400. (Climate Impact Lab)
Nigeria’s own agencies are warning. NiMet confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño in its August update, and northern Nigeria is expected to be more exposed. (Pulse Nigeria) On 23 October NiMet warned of hotter days, dust and water scarcity as the dry season begins, naming dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke. (NiMet advisory) Dry spells have already hit Borno, Yobe, Kebbi, Sokoto, Bauchi, Gombe and Plateau. (Pulse Nigeria)
Figure 1. Heat map of projected excess heat deaths in the highest-burden countries and regions (Climate Impact Lab, 2026).
Verification summary. The table below records what we checked, including two corrections to earlier circulating summaries.